the black swan the impact of the highly improbable incerto

Download Book The Black Swan The Impact Of The Highly Improbable Incerto in PDF format. You can Read Online The Black Swan The Impact Of The Highly Improbable Incerto here in PDF, EPUB, Mobi or Docx formats.

The Black Swan Second Edition

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 0679604189
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 38. 76 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Mobi
Download : 385
Read : 579

Download Now


The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

The Black Swan

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 1846140455
Genre : Forecasting
File Size : 27. 27 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
Download : 781
Read : 155

Download Now


Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. And why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.

The Bed Of Procrustes

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 9780141969244
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 88. 50 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Mobi
Download : 475
Read : 885

Download Now


In this profound and playful book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb presents his ideas about life in the form of aphorisms, the world's earliest - and most memorable - literary form. Procrustes was a character from Greek mythology who abducted travellers and invited them to spend the night in a special bed, which they had to fit to perfection. They never did. Those who were too tall had their legs chopped off; those who were too short were stretched. Every aphorism here is about a Procrustean bed of sorts - we humans, facing the limits of our knowledge, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific vocabularies and pre-packaged narratives. Only by embracing the unexpected - and accepting what we don't know - can we see the world as it really is.

Antifragile

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 9780812979688
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 20. 56 MB
Format : PDF
Download : 384
Read : 1270

Download Now


Shares insights into how adversity can bring out the best in individuals and communities, drawing on multiple disciplines to consider such topics as the superiority of city states over nation states and the drawbacks of debt.

Fooled By Randomness

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 1588367673
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 41. 26 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Docs
Download : 732
Read : 1144

Download Now


Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. “[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives. From the Trade Paperback edition.

Dynamic Hedging

Author : Nassim Taleb
ISBN : 0471152803
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 73. 83 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Docs
Download : 191
Read : 1048

Download Now


Dynamic Hedging is the definitive source on derivatives risk. Itprovides a real–world methodology for managing portfolioscontaining any nonlinear security. It presents risks from thevantage point of the option market maker and arbitrage operator.The only book about derivatives risk written by an experiencedtrader with theoretical training, it remolds option theory to fitthe practitioner′s environment. As a larger share of marketexposure cannot be properly captured by mathematical models, notedoption arbitrageur Nassim Taleb uniquely covers both on–model andoff–model derivatives risks. The author discusses, in plain English, vital issues,including: The generalized option, which encompasses all instruments withconvex payoff, including a trader′s potential bonus. The techniques for trading exotic options, including binary,barrier, multiasset, and Asian options, as well as methods to takeinto account the wrinkles of actual, non–bellshapeddistributions. Market dynamics viewed from the practitioner′s vantage point,including liquidity holes, portfolio insurance, squeezes, fattails, volatility surface, GARCH, curve evolution, static optionreplication, correlation instability, Pareto–Levy, regime shifts,autocorrelation of price changes, and the severe flaws in the valueat risk method. New tools to detect risks, such as higher moment analysis,topography exposure, and nonparametric techniques. The path dependence of all options hedged dynamically. Dynamic Hedging is replete with helpful tools, market anecdotes,at–a–glance risk management rules distilling years of market lore,and important definitions. The book contains modules in which thefundamental mathematics of derivatives, such as the Brownianmotion, Ito′s lemma, the numeraire paradox, the Girsanov change ofmeasure, and the Feynman–Kac solution are presented in intuitivepractitioner′s language. Dynamic Hedging is an indispensable and definitive reference formarket makers, academics, finance students, risk managers, andregulators. The definitive book on options trading and risk management "If pricing is a science and hedging is an art, Taleb is avirtuoso." –Bruno Dupire, Head of Swaps and Options Research,Paribas Capital Markets "This is not merely the best book on how options trade, it isthe only book." –Stan Jonas, Managing Director, FIMAT–SocietyGARCH "Dynamic Hedging bridges the gap between what the besttraders know and what the best scholars can prove." –WilliamMargrabe, President, The William Margrabe Group, Inc. "The most comprehensive, insightful, intuitive work on thesubject. It is instrumental for both beginning and experiencedtraders."– "A tour de force. That rare find, a book of great practical andtheoretical value. Taleb successfully bridges the gap between theacademic and the real world. Interesting, provocative, wellwritten. Each chapter worth a fortune to any current or prospectivederivatives trader."–Victor Niederhoffer, Chairman, NiederhofferInvestments

The New Evolution Diet

Author : Arthur De Vany
ISBN : 1609616359
Genre : Health & Fitness
File Size : 85. 64 MB
Format : PDF, Mobi
Download : 405
Read : 465

Download Now


Believe it or not, our DNA is almost exactly the same as that of our ancestors. While scientific advances in agriculture, medicine, and technology have protected man, to some degree, from dangers such as starvation, illness, and exposure, the fact remains that our cave-dwelling cousins were considerably healthier than we are. Our paleolithic ancestors did not suffer from heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, or obesity. In fact, a good deal of what we view as normal aging is a modern condition that is more akin to disease than any natural state of growing older. Disease-free and strikingly fit, 72-year-old Arthur De Vany--grandfather of the "Paleo lifestyle movement--is living proof that it pays to live like a caveman. In The New Evolution Diet, De Vany offers you a roadmap back to better health. The plan is built on three principles: eat three meals a day made up of nonstarchy vegetables, fruits, and lean proteins skip meals occasionally to promote a low fasting blood insulin level exercise less, not more, in shorter, high-intensity bursts By cutting out modern foods--including carbohydrates, dairy, and all processed foods--anyone can lose weight, gain muscle, and enjoy a longer, better life.

Top Download: